Identifying Underrated Pitchers in the Padres Farm System
The Padres have an interesting system, let’s find some names who need more attention.
As the trade deadline grows near on Thursday, the Padres system is bound to get shaken up, with the top 30 seeing fresh faces, whether it’ll be external additions or guys who will rise up. Today I’m going to look into some lesser-known arms who I think are top 30 prospects or can be top 30 prospects shortly.
The Padres system is known by many outsiders as bleak. Maybe it’s my bias, but there’s some real talent that’s still not very known. I’ve collected a group of 7 arms that I think have the talent to find their way into mainstream top 30 lists.
I used some statline scouting to find names on this list, which is just using minor league leaderboards on FanGraphs to find guys posting fun or promising numbers. I double-checked with private pitch data to make sure they contain something worthwhile in their arsenal. Though some guys on this list are rooted in banking on stuff leading to results.
SP: Tucker Musgrove, 23.5 y/m, Low-A. FG: N/R, MLB: N/R.
Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery following his 7th-round selection out of the NAIA school University of Mobile in the 2023 draft. His over 600-day recovery time took time, and results have been a struggle for Musgrove, with him having a 6.46 ERA. But the stuff shines, leading to a 30% strikeout rate.
Musgrove possesses a 5-pitch mix when healthy, with a 4-Seam, Sweeper, Curveball, Cutter, and Splitter. But he’s cut the Splitter so far in 2025. The 4-Seam is sitting 96 with 17” iVB from a higher release. He has a supination bias and spins breaking balls well. His Sweeper is 85 MPH with some lift and 11” gloveside movement. There’s also an 82 MPH Curveball with 7” depth. Along with a harder gyro slider that borders Cutter territory.
RP: Garrett Hawkins, 25.5 y/m, High-A. FG: N/R, MLB: N/R.
Hawkins might be the most known name on this list. He’s not allowed a run since April 23rd after making a 703-day recovery from Tommy John surgery, and he’s moved from starting to relieving in the wake of the operation. Hawkins has a 1.54 ERA so far in 2025, and he’s struck out 37% of hitters while only walking 9%.
His main pitch is a 94 MPH 4-Seam topping out at 97 with 20” induced vertical break from a 60° arm angle that misses loads of bats up in the zone. He mixes in 4 other pitches, and the main secondary is an 80 MPH Sweeper with solid depth and 15” gloveside movement. There are two other sparsely used breaking balls and a riding Changeup at 84 MPH.
RP: Andrew Moore, 25.11 y/m, Double-A. FG: #16, MLB: N/R.
Moore is one of my stuff-based picks on here. He was acquired from Cincinnati in the May trade of Connor Joe. Walks have been a massive problem with him, walking 22% of hitters so far in 2025, but he is striking out 30% while being incredibly hard to barrel up.
Moore is throwing heat with his 4-Seam sitting 96 and touching 99 with 16” iVB from a sub-30° arm angle. It’s a 70-grade offering when located up in the zone, and he spins it well with 2500–2600 RPM. There’s also a hard gyro Slider at 88 MPH with -3” horizontal break and equal vertical. He’s got great feel for spin as a supinator and mixes in 2 other hard-breaking balls.
RP: Carson Swilling, 23.6 y/m, Low-A. FG: N/R, MLB: N/R.
Swilling was an undrafted free agent in 2024 out of South Alabama after transferring from Auburn. He had some walk struggles but has fixed that in the Padres system since transferring to the bullpen. He suffered an injury in June but before had a 2.90 ERA and 4.3% walk rate while getting over 30% strikeouts.
The 4-Seam is 93 with 18” vertical break and a fair bit of armside run from a higher release. His Curveball is 78–79 with solid spin and good depth. He also mixes in a fun sweeper and cutter along with a Changeup that separates tremendously in velocity and vertical break while generating 20” horizontal break.
RP: Vicarte Domingo, 22.8 y/m, Low-A. FG: N/R, MLB: N/R.
Domingo has produced some strong results in 2025 with a 3.56 ERA while bringing a 32% strikeout rate. Walks have been a slight issue, but in general, command is rough at the Low-A level.
Domingo generates outlier ride from a low arm angle, getting 19” of lift at 92 MPH. He’s topped out higher in the 95–96 range, but the ride and flat approach angle make it an incredibly hard pitch to get too. There’s an 83 MPH Slider with a fair amount of horizontal break that is barely out of the gyro range. He gets decent spin on it, leading to some hope for arsenal development. There’s a Changeup mixed in with 15” horizontal at 84 MPH along with a harder Cutter getting strong ride.
SP: Kleiber Olmedo, 22.8 y/m, Low-A. FG: N/R, MLB: N/R.
Olmedo has had a struggle with stranding runners this year with a slightly over 6 ERA, but the stuff is intriguing. He’s striking out a little over 24% and holding off walks at a good rate for his age and level while having good stuff.
The fastball is 93–94 topping at 97 with 18–19” iVB from a sub-50° arm angle while getting a lot of armside run. His main secondary is a cutter at 86 with 6” lift. He also throws an 88 MPH changeup with 16” armside run and good vertical separation. He’s also tacked on a downer slider at 82 with 3” depth.
RP: Harry Gustin, 23.2 y/m, High-A, FG: N/R, MLB: N/R.
Gustin unfortunately suffered an unclassified injury last month, but assuming it’s nothing in the elbow surgery tier, he should be fine. Gustin performed to a 2.34 ERA in 42.1 innings as a southpaw. He struck out 28% of hitters so far in 2025 and has stranded runners at a great clip.
Gustin throws from a very vertical release and has a unique 4-seam that can look like it’s cutting, though it gets average armside run. It’s a mediocre vertical break from his release and 92 MPH, but it actually creates interesting results. He’s a supinator, but his curveball is sorta loopy at 75 MPH, but it generates -19” iVB. There’s also a downer slider and riding cambio.
Overview:
Some of these names could be less likely than others to break into the top 30, but overall some of these names are likely to garner consideration for lists and could catch themselves in trade talks.
It’s a fun list with most of them rooted in stuff, and I enjoy all of these guys. I’m especially interested in Musgrove and Olmedo, but if Andrew Moore can harness command, he could be on a David Morgan-type fast track to the majors.